1. Save Up for Christmas

    It’s time for my yearly admonition:

    Those of you who don’t save up for your Christmas giving by putting aside some cash every month in your Freedom Account — well, all I can say is that you’re probably doing it wrong.

    (On the other hand, if you’re sitting on $10 million in liquid savings AND can manage to NOT piss it all away, then I suppose you can handle your Santa spending however you like, yessir.)

    In any case, the idea is to have your gift money saved and ready to go by the end of November next year. That way you won’t have to rely on FANTASTIC BANKING DEALS like this one:

    Or, even worse, slapping the bills on your credit cards … and letting them simmer for months.

    Even if you can’t be debt-free today, take steps now to make sure that next year’s holiday-season spending won’t dig the hole even deeper!




     

     

  2. Quicken: Cash Flow Forecast

    Over the years, Intuit has added lots of tools to Quicken — mostly, I would argue, to encourage its users to adapt an annual upgrade cycle of the software. While I adore Quicken for its performance at tracking accounts, spending, and net worth, I find myself using very few of the additional tools that its Deluxe and Premium versions offer. (As of this post, I’m using Quicken 2010 Deluxe.)

    One such tool — brought to my attention by an email a few months back — is Quicken’s Cash Flow Forecast. It’s meant to help with long-range (say, a year out or more) cashflow planning. Quicken’s Help Files explain it like this:

    For long term forecasting use Quicken’s Cash Flow Forecast feature. A cash flow forecast lets you project your cash flow for the future, based on scheduled bills and deposits and estimated amounts. Quicken can forecast your spending patterns for up to two years, and displays your account balances in a graph.

    You can get to the Cash Flow Forecast via the menubar:

    PLANNING → CASH FLOW FORECAST

    When I select that, Quicken displays a graph like this:

    That awfully smooth, upward-sloping line is meant to show me how my bank-account balances will steadily increase over the next year IF my monthly “Income Items” and “Expense Items” meet the parameters I’ve set up. (Displayed figures above have been certified by the Congressional Budget Office. So you know they’re, uh, reliable.)

    Forecasting: It’s a Lot of Work

    The graph is all fine and dandy, I suppose. However, it took me a patience-testing hour or so to get Quicken’s Cash Flow Forecast set up in a way that’d reflect anything close to reality. Initially, Quicken’s “brain” had taken my next year’s worth of Scheduled Transactions, combined it with my average monthly categorized income and expenses, and applied all of that to my household financial cash flow in a manner that I can only describe as MADDENINGLY RANDOM.

    Some “income items” appeared twice. Many “expense items” appeared three and four times. Now, I’m all for conservative planning, but come on. Those initial figures were a disaster, and way out of whack.

    I can’t imagine that any large chunk of Quicken users would be willing to plow through their incomes and expenses, category by category, Scheduled Transaction by Scheduled Transaction, just to get this thing running at a somewhat realistic clip. I did it, but only because I’m a money dork. The rest of you probably have lives.

    Just Start Over?

    The Cash Flow Forecast allows you to create and save different scenarios, which is probably pretty useful IF you have a few hours to kill. I wasn’t even willing to approach this feature, given what it took just to get the thing set up. (When making changes, income and expense items aren’t even listed in alphabetical order, for crying out loud. Who the hell came up with this?)

    I think that, if I were going to rely on the Cash Flow Forecast at all, I would start by scrapping ALL of the estimated items Quicken creates. I’d then simply enter the categories I wanted, by hand, starting with my largest categories (taxes, food, insurance, etc.) first. I’d likely keep the “Known Items,” as Quicken creates these from Scheduled Transactions, which ought to be fairly ironclad. (Ironclad, that is, IF you’re good about setting up all your recurring transactions as “Scheduled Transactions.”)

    Like a lot of Quicken “tool” offerings, there’s probably some value in the Cash Flow Forecast … but if you’re like me, it might take you so long to rebuild the Forecast data that you simply ignore it altogether.

    Sorry, Intuit. I’m opting instead for dumping a few months’ of Quicken report data into Excel, and working from there!




     

     

  3. Debt-Free is Nice, But…

    A couple of weeks back, I spent some time thumping on How to Get What You Want in Life With the Money You Already Have, a book written by Carol Keeffe in the early 1990s. While not a literary prize by any stretch, the book deserves some credit: It did get me started in the world of personal-finance reading.

    One of Keeffe’s particularly egregious recommendations — and this is just kerfuffle waiting to happen — is for folks to make minimum payments on all their bills and credit cards until they’ve saved up six months’ worth of salary as an emergency fund. To me, such a plan would almost guarantee failure. How many folks do you know with the financial (and disciplinary) ability to pull that off?

    Not many, is my guess.

    I much prefer Dave Ramsey’s Baby Steps plan, and its suggestion to make “minimum payments only” until one saves $1,000 (or $500, if you’re a low-income household) … and THEN to attack the debts full-force and head-on.

    However, as I was finger-flipping through How to Get What You Want a little more, I managed to find a few paragraphs that stood out — in a good way! Actually, I found this to be quite insightful, and a bit Suze-Orman-esque:

    For most of us there are two things that would make a big difference in the quality of our lives: (1) having the deeply satisfying feeling of knowing we’re directing money toward making our dreams come true, and (2) having the secure feeling of knowing money is available for today’s emergencies as well as tomorrow’s needs.

    Well, I’m not so sure about the “making dreams come true” part, but I’ll vouch for the utter goodness of financial security. Having money available for emergencies changes everything. Life looks far different when you’re ready for the speedbumps and potholes.

    Keeffe continues:

    If you were thinking that eliminating a bill would make a significant difference in the quality of your life, watch out. It’s only a diversionary tactic of the mind. Of course things would be better if the bills were more under control or gone altogether. But eliminating a bill creates only a temporary feeling of relief compared with the deep and lasting feelings of power and security that money in hand creates. The availability of money means choices, and choices mean control. Lack of bills will never compare to the potency of having choices (money).

    You know what? I agree with this. One. Hundred. Percent.

    As a guy who’s made it through Step 3 of Ramsey’s Baby Steps (no debt except for the mortgage; fully-funded emergency fund is in place), I found that for me, while paying off that last debt felt great, hitting my savings mark felt even better.

    As Keeffe notes, “Eliminating a bill creates only a temporary feeling of relief, compared with the deep and lasting feelings of power and security that money in hand creates.” To this I say: AMEN.

    Debt-free is sweet, but there is no substitute for savings.

    But We Gotta Qualify This…

    As much as I love what Keeffe says here, she is still presenting it in the context of “You need to have a bunch of money saved BEFORE you begin seriously paying off your debts.” The logic of this baffles me entirely. While it sounds silly, I want to scream at her, “Hey! The longer your readers stay in debt, the less likely they’re ever going to get out of it!”

    Though of course I have no quantifiable evidence to support this, everything I’ve learned to date, and everything I’ve seen, points toward the assertion that the more you muddle through life, simply “living with” your bills and debts, the less likely you are to ever get out from under them. Let’s face it: Banks and other lending institutions endeavor to make it so.

    At some point the lack of progress, the years of frustration and stress — all of it accumulates into the deadly “This is just how everyone lives!” attitude.

    At which point, you’re sunk.




     

     

  4. $100k Workers: Paycheck to Paycheck

    Well, for a minute there, I was almost felt a tinge of sympathy.

    Almost.

    CNBC: More Upper Incomers Living Paycheck to Paycheck

    The centerpiece finding of the above article, I’d say, is this juicy tidbit:

    Thirty percent of workers with salaries of $100,000 or more said they are living paycheck to paycheck, up from 21 percent last year, according to the survey of 4,400 workers nationwide.

    Overall, 61 percent said they always or usually live paycheck to paycheck, up from 49 percent in 2008 and 43 percent in 2007.

    I mean, those $100k salaries don’t go as far as they used to. Thankfully, we can be sure that the reason these folks are feeling stretched money-thin is that they’re cramming as much cash as they can into retirement savings, which can leave them FEELING as if they’re living paycheck-to-paycheck.

    Thirty-six percent said they don’t contribute anything to retirement savings, like a 401(k) or a IRA.

    As for short-term savings, 33 percent of those surveyed reported that they don’t put any money aside each month, up from 25 percent in 2008.

    Okay. Forget I said that.

    We’re screwed.




     

     

  5. More Savings Data

    In a bit of survey data that goes hand-in-hand with my “Who Is Saving?” post from a few weeks ago, the Employee Benefit Research Institute earlier this year released its 2010 version of the Retirement Confidence Survey:

    EBRI: 2010 Retirement Confidence Survey

    Among its more-distressing findings:

    • 27% of workers report having $1,000 or less in savings
    • 54% of workers report a total household value of savings and investments (excl. primary home and any defined-benefit plans) to be less than $25,000

    There’s a nice summary of the survey findings in the March 2010 EBRI Issue Brief (pdf).




     

     

  6. New Study: Who Is Saving?

    I’m not sure why, but I really love it when I discover new studies on savings and debt.

    (Pretty sick, I know.)

    Somehow I missed this one — entitled “Who Is Saving?” — which showed up on the Consumer Federation of America’s website back in February:

    CFA: Who Is Saving? (pdf)

    Using data from the 2007 Survey of Consumer Finances, Catherine Montalto gives us a glimpse into who’s saving, and how much they’re putting aside for emergencies.

    I find it interesting (okay, more like terrifying, though certainly NOT shocking) that for families in my income range ($59,600-$98,199), only 32 percent actually save for emergencies. And of the ones who DO have savings or money-market accounts, the median value is only $5,000.

    It’s even worse for families in my age group: Of those who have savings accounts, the median balance is just $3,900.

    Yeesh. I gotta tell ya: Reading this makes me feel pretty good about my $15k of liquid savings that we recently completed.

    Be sure to check out the PDF above, and see where you stack up!




     

     

  7. Why I Promote ‘Baby Steps’

    When you have a website about personal finance that’s been up and running for years, you’re going to get plenty “Where do I start?” emails from readers.

    It’s pretty much inevitable.

    Same goes for your day-to-day life. As a financial blogger, if you develop any sort of “rep” at all, you’ll get similar questions from people you meet first-hand. The ones you don’t scare away, at least. You’re an Excel-wielding freak, after all.

    Over the years, in these situations, I’ve become quite comfortable in my promotion of Dave Ramsey’s Baby Steps plan. The reason it became my first choice?

    Simplicity, with a capital S.

    Well, actually, that’s just the main reason I point folks toward the Baby Steps. The plan can, with minimal description necessary, fit on one page. Everyone grasps it, and grasps it quickly. In a world where smart personal finance is frequently nuked by eye-glazing jargon, fine print, and fast-talking brokers of every sort, “simple” is a big plus.

    However, in my opinion, Ramsey’s Baby Steps plan is also the best-packaged (yes, this matters) and most accessible money plan out there.

    Dave Ramsey himself often says (correctly) that there’s nothing new in what he preaches. Instead, he just “packages” it better than everyone else.

    (He also has a mighty powerful, semi-captive “in” with the church-going crowd. But that’s a tangled post for another time.)

    Don’t You Care About the Math?

    Of course I care about the math. When I was working through my own “debt snowball,” I rerouted as many debt dollars into low-interest promo offers as I could, and then threw all extra cash at the highest-rate debts first. It worked great for us … but it also lengthened the time between instances where we could “cross debts off the list.”

    In lieu of that, I had to find other ways to keep myself motivated and on track. Most of these had to do with creating It’s Your Money and Money Musings and writing as much as I could. And oh yeah — I read every financial book I could get my hands on.

    Look: Paying debts off by smallest- to largest-balance, rather than by largest- to smallest-interest-rate, is practically guaranteed to cost more in interest. (Though how much more it’ll cost is very much a factor of how skyscraper-ish the rates are that you’re paying.)

    What it does give you, though, is something that 98 percent of debtors I’ve encountered desperately need. And that something is near-term, rapid bursts of motivation. A sense of immediate progress. A way to look down and see that they are, in fact, moving forward. They’re marking creditors off the list.

    It’s all about “quick wins,” as Ramsey phrases it.

    I’ve given the pay-by-balance versus pay-by-rate battle a lot of thought. Once I account for human nature, I have to come down on the side of pay-by-balance. So on this facet, Dave and I agree … but lots of other money bloggers disagree.

    Getting to Debt Freedom:
    How Much Does The “How” Matter?

    While it makes for interesting reader comments on higher-traffic blogs than this one, the “pay-by-balance” versus “pay-by-rate” debate seems, to me, to mostly miss the target:

    If the plan you follow works — if it gets you out of debt, decreases your stress, and improves your life — then it was the right plan.

    One More Reason I Recommend Dave…

    It’s because he’s everywhere.

    It comes down to that motivation thing again. If you’re feeling like you’re losing your grip on your finances, like your emergency fund saving and your debt paydown plans aren’t going anywhere, like your Baby Steps have become Baby Stumbles, then a few “visits with Dave” via his ubiquitous radio show and/or his nightly Fox Business call-in show can get your head straight in a hurry. And if you’re a Sunday-go-to-meetin’ soul, odds are pretty darn high that you’ll have a Financial Peace University setup going on there which you can easily access.

    No other money guru is as accessible, as available in as many channels, as Dave Ramsey is right now. AM radio … TV … live events … books and DVDs … you name it. He’s there, and ready to smack you upside the head should the need arise. (Which it will.)

    So there you go: In my mind, it’s the simplicity and accessibility of Dave Ramsey that puts him at the high-water mark of today’s financial personas.

    Is he a salesman at heart? Absolutely he is.

    Does he need to move DR-branded product? You bet he does.

    But until someone else’s name starts popping up in the “My husband and I finally have our finances under control, and it’s all thanks to Dave Ramsey” statements I hear so often, his Baby Steps plan will be the one I suggest.




     

     

  8. Liquid Savings Goal Reached

    Astute readers will notice that, as of the end of last month, Lisa and I reached our Liquid Savings Goal of $15,000. For the first time, that little green “Liquid Savings” bar chart on the right sidebar shows progress of one hundred percent.

    Though we’ve not strictly followed Dave Ramsey’s Baby Steps plan, we’re now up-and-over Baby Step 3:

    Create a full-fledged Emergency Fund containing 3 to 6 months’ worth of expenses.

    The $15k gives us about four months’ worth of living expenses. With no debt other than our mortgage, and four-plus months’ worth of cash in the bank, I would like to take this opportunity to channel the incomparable James Brown and state that, yes, truly, I feel good.

    What’s Next?

    You’ll forgive me, I hope, for not yet knowing exactly what goal I wish to target next. If I turn to Dave Ramsey again, I see that Baby Step 4 suggests:

    Direct 15% of your annual pre-tax income into your retirement plans. Utilize tax-advantaged accounts such as 401ks and Roth IRAs, if eligible.

    While notching up my 401(k) contributions to 15 percent of income would be easy to pull off, effort-wise, I have over the last 5-10 years grown quite skeptical of the 401(k) setup overall. The high fees of my company’s particular plan are bad enough. But beyond that — call me crazy, if you like — I’m also way reluctant to start pouring more cash than I already do (enough to get the full employer match) into a tax-deferred investment vehicle which my spend-itself-silly government so obviously eyes as a future income source.

    I’d favor the Roth IRA route, for sure. But even then, one has to wonder just how exactly the idea of allowing us “rich” Roth investors to withdraw investment gains tax free is going to play out in the future. (My opinion? Not well.)

    So … as I said, I’m undecided where to focus efforts next. In fact, when it comes to savings, there are a multitude of items we’ll need to consider:

    • My personal vehicle is now 15 years old. My 1995 Nissan truck will have to be replaced at some point. I don’t want to borrow for my next truck, if I can help it. It’s likely time to start making monthly Freedom Account payments to myself for this future expense.
    • Our house will need a new roof soon. Ah yes, the old house-maintenance big-ticket expenses. In this realm, new siding and windows would be beneficial, as well. And you should see our carpet. (Actually, no, you shouldn’t. Bleh.)
    • Vacations. Good ones. When I was a kid, my family never took “big” vacations. Sure, we’d make yearly trips to Iowa to visit relatives, but that was about it. There were things I wanted to see as a kid, but never did, and there are even more things I want to see now with my family: national parks, Disneyland, Gettysburg, the Smithsonian, various historic sites in the northeast … you name it. My list is long. But when you live in Oklahoma, as we do, which is close to precisely nothing, such trips don’t come cheap. Gotta save, save, save for them.

    So yes, I have savings-goal ideas — don’t we all? — but haven’t yet given a whole lot of thought to “What next?”

    For now, I’m just happy to finally see that fifteen grand tally up at the top of my Quicken sidebar … and to know that my household is in better shape financially than it has ever been.




     

     

  9. Our Liquid Savings Goals

    Comments Off

    Those of you familiar with Dave Ramsey probably already know about the third of his seven Baby Steps:

    3. Create a full-fledged Emergency Fund containing 3 to 6 months’ worth of expenses.

    While I’m a strong supporter of most of what Ramsey has to say, I personally haven’t followed his “Baby Steps” plan (not strictly, anyway) in my own life. At the moment, though, I’m devoting my energy to our equivalent of this “Emergency Fund” step.

    Liquid Savings Goals

    Here’s what we’re looking to accumulate:

    1) $12,000 in a dedicated, stand-alone Emergency Fund at ING Direct or a similar high-yield savings account.
    2) $500 cushion in our Electric Orange checking account (from which we pay all bills).
    3) $2,500 cushion in my wife’s checking/savings account.

    Once achieved, this will give our household balance sheet a “liquid savings” total of $15,000. It would cover roughly four to five months’ worth of expenses for our household.

    Savings Progress

    We achieved our liquid savings goal of $15k in March, 2010.

    …Plus a Freedom Account

    All of the above is in addition to our Freedom Account, in which we save for irregular (but expected!) expenses. Life-insurance premiums, Christmas giving, auto-insurance premiums, and various other non-monthly expenses accrue in this account. Goal amounts, as you can imagine, vary from year to year, so I won’t delineate them here.

    (Besides, this part of our financial life is pretty much on automatic pilot!)




     

     

  10. Savers Pay for Spendthrifts (“No Kidding!” Edition)

    Not that this is breaking news to readers here, but at least we have a sizeable media outlet stating the obvious — that stupid-low interest rates mean savers get to pay for banks’ mistakes:

    NY Times: At Tiny Rates, Saving Costs Money

    If you haven’t figured it out by now, you and I as Designated Savers get to subsidize the spend-happy folks (and the banks who lend to them, and the financial system that craters without them…) pretty much in perpetuity. I rather appreciate this comment from PIMCO’s Bill Gross, explaining things oh-so-well:

    “What the average citizen doesn’t explicitly understand is that a significant part of the government’s plan to repair the financial system and the economy is to pay savers nothing and allow damaged financial institutions to earn a nice, guaranteed spread,” said William H. Gross, co-chief investment officer of the Pacific Investment Management Company, or Pimco. “It’s capitalism, I guess, but it’s not to be applauded.”

    Mr. Gross said he read his monthly portfolio statement twice because he could not believe that the line “Yield on cash” was 0.01 percent. At that rate, he said, it would take him 6,932 years to double his money.

    And don’t we savers know it. I mean, Mr. Gross ought to at least get acquainted with ING Direct.


    We go on to learn that (SURPRISE SURPRISE) low interest rates are particularly painful for seniors. Why? Because so many of them are on fixed, safe-investment-based incomes:

    Eileen Lurie, 75, is taking out a reverse mortgage to help offset the decline in returns on her investments tied to interest rates. Reverse mortgages have a checkered reputation, but Ms. Lurie said her bank was going out of its way to explain the product to her.

    “These banks don’t want to be held responsible for thousands of seniors standing in bread lines,” she said.

    Ms. Lurie needs to wake up and smell the Starbucks Holiday Blend.

    Firstly, were I the reporter on this story, I’d have to ask Ms. Lurie, “Exactly who is it that’s paying you those on-the-floor savings rates, thereby forcing you to reverse-mortgage your home equity to them, thereby (again) generating some sweet banking monthly fee income?”

    (Answer: the banks)

    Secondly, I’ve formed the opinion that if your nearest Really Big Bank and/or Bank Holding Company could find a way to book record profits and earn management bonuses simply by putting seniors in bread lines, they’d do it. And a millisecond later they’d leverage-up their bets at 37-to-1, utilizing some variety of “Seniors in Bread Lines” default-swap derivative.

    (“Jenkins!” yells the Goldman Sachs guy who’s reading this. “We need some financial innovation over here — STAT!”)

    I dunno. Ms. Lurie seems pretty naive. Perhaps we could arrange for her to make a social call with the Rickmans, late of Denver:

    Denver Post: Credit-Card Squeeze Angers Elderly Couple

    Our geriatric anti-heros, the Rickmans, are mighty miffed at Bank of America.

    [Rickman] is 81 now, seven years his wife’s senior. They have had a Bank of America credit card for 20 years. They never once in all that time, both say in near unison, missed a payment.

    Rickman slides his December bill across the table, with instructions to read it. No, not all of that, he spits, a Pall Mall cigarette hanging on one side of his mouth. Look at the interest rate, he says.

    Sixteen-point-nine percent, it reads.

    “I was paying 5.9 percent, which is what I have paid for years,” he says. “I always paid them $500 a month without complaint. Now, they want $1,074 this month. I can’t pay it. I won’t pay it.”

    That’s his prerogative, certainly. Whilst it is, admittedly, a bit late, I do have a simple yet valuable Life Equation for Mr. Rickman:

    It should go without saying that when card companies see their ability to do “Whatever the f__k they want” to their customers being limited at some specific time in the near future, as they do with the CARD Act, then they will all immediately rush to do “Whatever the f__k they can” to their customers immediately, if not sooner.

    This idea of banks frontrunning upcoming regulations ain’t rocket science. Really. I’d say “It’s so simple, even a congressman could figure it out,” but a cursory glance at today’s headlines would prove it’s not quite that simple, apparently.

    Ah well. Let’s see what this week’s news cycle brings…